The LSU Tigers (7-5) and No. 21 Houston Cougars (9-3) close out their 2025 seasons in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. This SEC vs. Big 12 matchup kicks off on Saturday, December 27, 2025, at 9:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. CT) and airs on ESPN.
Team Overviews

LSU Tigers: Finished 7-5 overall (3-5 SEC) in a turbulent year. Brian Kelly was fired mid-season, interim coach Frank Wilson led the team, and Lane Kiffin takes over in 2026. Key opt-outs include QB Garrett Nussmeier (injury) and several defensive starters (e.g., LB Harold Perkins, CB Mansoor Delane). Backup QB Michael Van Buren Jr. starts. LSU seeks a fourth straight bowl win after beating Baylor in last year’s Texas Bowl.

Houston Cougars: Improved to 9-3 (6-3 Big 12) in Willie Fritz’s second year, aiming for a 10-win season (first since 2021). Roster largely intact, led by dual-threat QB Conner Weigman (2,475 pass yards, 21 TDs; 644 rush yards, 11 TDs). Playing essentially a home game (10 miles from campus) boosts motivation.

All-time series: LSU leads 2-1.
Betting Odds (as of Dec. 27, consensus from DraftKings/BetMGM/FanDuel)
Spread: Houston -1.5 (-105 to -110) | LSU +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Houston -115 to -134 | LSU -105 to +110
Over/Under: 41.5 (Over -110 to -112 | Under -108 to -110)

Expert Predictions and Picks
Experts lean toward Houston due to LSU’s opt-outs, coaching transition, and lower motivation, while Houston plays with a full roster for a milestone win.
Spread Pick: Houston -1.5
LSU’s depleted defense faces a motivated Houston offense. Cougars covered in 8 of 12 games; Tigers just 4-8 ATS. Home-field edge in a low-spread game favors Houston to win by at least a field goal.

Total Pick: Over 41.5
SportsLine model strongly backs Over (simulated 10,000+ times), citing LSU’s high-scoring bowl history (Over in 7 straight, including big totals in prior Texas Bowls). LSU’s defense misses key pieces, potentially leading to points despite regular-season Unders.
Predicted Score: Houston 27, LSU 20
Houston pulls away late for a cover and 10th win. Expect a competitive but higher-scoring game than the low total suggests.
This bowl caps a rebuilding year for Houston positively and a transitional one for LSU. Enjoy the game!